DP-Index-oct07-supplement-on-climate-change

A section of DOCPOST which is an
extract, executive summary, index rolled into one.

October 2007

SUPPLEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE

An arctic ice melt so vast and rapid it unnerves the experts

The pace of change has far exceeded what had been estimated by almost all the simulations.

Are the models overly conservative? Or are they missing natural influences that can cause wide swings in ice and temperature, thereby dwarfing the slow background warming?

John Michael Wallace, a scientist at the University of Washington said "We used to argue that a lot of the variability up to the late 1990s was induced by changes in the winds, natural changes not obviously related to global warming. But changes in the last few years make you have to question that. I'm much more open to the idea that we might have passed a point where it's becoming essentially irreversible."

Marika Holland, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado says "Natural variations could turn around and counteract the greenhouse-gas-forced change, perhaps stabilizing the ice for a bit. Eventually the natural variations would again reinforce the human driven change, perhaps leading to even more rapid retreat. (Emphasis added)

Andrew C. Revkin, The Asian Age, Bombay, 13 Oct 2007

The planet is melting

When warming becomes its own cause, we might not be able to stop extremely harmful climate change no matter how much we cut our greenhouse gas emissions. We need a far more aggressive global response to climate change.

Thomas Homer-Dixon, The Asian Age, Bombay, 09 Oct 2007

Time to face the challenge

Environmentalist Sunita Narain said that the report is a cause for worry and since the IPCC kept its estimates very safe and conservative, the actual situation is likely to be worse than projected. Emphasising the need to act, she said that the problem was the attitude that the impacts would affect some other place and someone else.

The IPCC assessment states that up to two billion people worldwide will face water shortages. In Asia, up to a billion people will suffer water shortages. Maize and wheat yields will fall by up to 5 per cent in India; rice crops in China will drop by up to 12 per cent.

Soni Sinha, Sahara Time, 09 Oct 2007

Time to cool off the debate on warming

The discussion about climate change has turned into a nasty dustup, with one side arguing that we're headed for catastrophe and the other maintaining that it's all a hoax. I say that neither is right.

We shouldn't ignore climate change or the policies that could attack it. But we should be honest about the shortcomings and costs of those policies, as well as the benefits.

Environmental groups say that the only way to deal with the effects of global warming is to make drastic cuts in carbon emissions. In his book The Skeptical Environmentalist, argues that we should be thinking creatively and pragmatically about how we could combat the much larger challenges facing our planet. If we focus instead on environmental concerns and, for instance, adopt the hefty cuts in carbon emissions many environmental groups promote, this could reduce the rise by about five inches. But cutting emissions comes at a cost: Everybody would be poorer in 2100.

The climate models show that Kyoto would have postponed the effects of global warming by just seven days by the end of the century.

The typical cost of cutting a ton of CO2 is currently about $20. Yet, according to a wealth of scientific literature, the damage from a ton of carbon in the atmosphere is about $2. We need to reduce the cost of cutting emissions from $20 a tonne to, say, $2. The way to achieve this is to dramatically increase spending on research and development of low-carbon energy.

Ideally, every nation should commit to spending 0.05 per cent of its gross domestic product exploring non-carbon-emitting energy technologies. This spending could add up to about $25 billion per year but would still be seven times cheaper than the Kyoto Protocol and would increase global R&D tenfold.

Bjorn Lomborg, The Deccan Herald, 09 Oct 2007

Climate change agenda and India Inc

The IPCC issued Three "assessment" reports on climate change. The first released in February held mankind responsible for rising at mospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The second, released in Brussels in April, said famine, floods and other ecological disasters would follow unless emissions were managed. The third, in May, focused on solutions, calling for investments in new, carbon-free resources.

Maybe Mumbai's rains, the recent typhoon-triggered floods in China and unprecedented weather conditions the world over have nothing to do with climate change. But it is still difficult to imagine that a developing country like India ought to advocate a pollute-away approach to growth rather than not.
what we can do about it - (Legislate that.)

1. Every utility setting up power plants in coming years must generate 20% or more of its power non-conventionally.
2. Energy conservation and the potentially harmful effects of global warming must be made an integral part of school textbooks with every school.
3. Every company must have an environment policy.
4. Organizations must encourage energy saving or alternative generating products.

The big challenge as I see it is to shift the onus, from only government to companies. Every industry can come up with solutions. The fact is that very few businessmen have focused on the problem of climate change except to fend off local environmentalists, or, on the odd occasion, the state government's often corrupt pollution control board.

Govindraj Ethiraj, The Business Standard, 09 Oct 2007

'Women's views matter in tackling climate change'

In the developing world in particular, women are disproportionately involved in natural resource-dependent activities, such as agriculture, compared to salaried occupations. As resource-dependent activities are directly dependent on climatic conditions, changes in climate variability projected for future is likely to affect women.
Unfortunately, as a matter of fact, participation of women in the political process, at international, national and local level is low, both in the South and in the North.

Adaptation to climate change will be necessary to address the impact resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.

Adaptive response such as investments in storm protection and water supply infrastructure, as well as community health services are vital. Systematic disaster preparedness at community level can help reduce death tolls. For instance, new warning systems and evacuation procedures in Andhra Pradesh reduced death from coastal tropical cyclone by 90 per cent in 1979 as compared to 1977.

R K Pachauri, The Deccan Herald,Bangalore, 14 Oct 2007

Nuclear power is simply not necessary

Message is clear: we have been saying let us not spend the next few years debating how to tackle the problems; the solutions are here, they are ready-made.

Some radical shifts have to be made and we do not think that governments yet realise or understand or are willing to make the shifts needed.

One of the greatest challenges is how governments, in negative moments, can play a little bit of a blame game. That is a recipe for disaster. What we are advocating to any government is you have to take up leadership. As for India, there are people we speak to who have a very black-and-white view of the situation. 'Do we have development or do we have to take more action on climate change?'

Non-governmental organisations have really focussed on industrialised countries that have to do the lion's share of tackling climate change - that is clear. But what is also clear is that developing countries like India, China constantly keep on developing with the business-asusual old-style development approach. They could be repeating the same mistakes the West has made in the past few decades. And if India, China and other countries continue to make those mistakes, then regardless of what the West is doing to tackle climate change it will be impossible.

So in a sense India is at a crossroads. If it makes the right choices, India can do its share even though it is not a lion's share. But India can make a significant contribution, and without that contribution the world could be in serious trouble.

Marcus Dam, The Hindu, Chennai , 16 Oct 2007

Wither(ing) Kashmir

While winter and spring water run off has clearly increased due to early meltdown of glaciers, resulting in frequent floods, faster meltdown has resulted in significant decrease in water availability in streams during summers.

Deficit in food production in Kashmir region has reached 40 per cent from 23 per cent in 1980-81. As more and more paddy land is changed into rain-fed orchards, Kashmir's current 40 per cent food grain deficit is likely to touch over 60 per cent in the coming 10 years.

Soni Sinha, Sahara Time, 14 Oct 2007

INTER-NATION CONFLICT ON CLIMATE CHANGE!

UN wants india to cut emission

Human Development Report 2007 (HDR-2007) of United Nation's Development Project (UNDP) recommend target-based commitments for all the major polluting countries. We suggest rich countries take deep cuts of 80% from their present level of emissions and other countries (including India and China) take on targets as well. Rich countries should provide the finances for these countries to achieve their targets,

While the data about impacts of climate change may go undisputed, Indian experts were caught by surprise by the UN stance on emission cuts. "If UN is saying this, it is a regressive stand. Emissions from rich countries have increased between 1990-2004. Yes, deep cuts are required, but by the rich countries. They should be provided the financial framework to leapfrog to cleaner technologies," said Sunita Narain, member of the PM's council on climate change.

Recently, Nicholas Stern suggested India accept internationally enforceable energy efficiency standards for industry. Indian policymakers see this position as part of the European gameplan ahead of the UN meet in Bali. The policy planners in India have opposed this, claiming it would hurt their international competitiveness, squeeze out the labour-intensive small and medium scale industry in the sectors that undertake such standards.

Nitin Sethi, The Times of India, Bombay, 30 Oct 2007

Indonesia Seeks Allies for Pay-for-Forests Plan

The Indonesian government wants rich countries to pay up to $20 a hectare, or 2.47 acres, to preserve its dwindling forests. At the meeting of 40 environment ministers near Jakarta, a precursor to the UN Climate Change to be held in Bali in December, Indonesia began mobilising countries like Brazil, Mexico, Congo etc which contain most of the world rain forests.

In its efforts to lead the debate, Indonesia has opened its own environmental record to scrutiny. A recent world Bank report cited Indonesia as one of the top three emitters of green- house gases, mostly because of rampant cutting of its forests, persistent wildfires, industrialisation and mining.

The December conference aims to solidify the global climate deal before the 1997 Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

Peter Gelling, The Hindu, Chennai , 29 Oct 2007

The Time To Act Is Now

The IPCC as a scientific body involving thousands of the most qualified experts has focused its activities on assessment of all aspects of climate change over the past 19 years of its existence, and has naturally not drawn any linkage between the impact of climate change and the issue of peace among human societies across the globe.

Perhaps the most significant impact of climate change is expected in respect to availability of water. The IPCC estimates that in South Asia alone perhaps 500 million people would be affected by reduced river flows in the northern part of the subcontinent and about 250 million in China. Water scarcity is already a source of tension between several states of India and certainly between India and Bangladesh. Climate change could add to these tensions.

A major impact of climate change resulting from sea level rise would be the threat of coastal flooding. The danger of environmental refugees on account of climate change such as due to coastal flooding, acute water scarcity and extreme precipitation events and heat waves could disrupt peace and security in several regions of the world. Also, droughts and floods which are increasing in several parts of the world in frequency and intensity could displace large numbers of people with conse-quences for the stability of society.

R K Pachauri, The Times of India, Bombay, 23 Oct 2007

Challenge on climate begins now

Prospects for an agreement on global cooperation to reduce emisions, dimmed in September when the Bush administration, at a 16-nation "major emitters" meeting in US, signalled it intends to stick with its opposition to any global treaty mandating reductions in the heat-trapping emissions.

George W Bush delivered a final blow when he formally rejected the pact, saying its modest cuts would damage the economy of the US, historically the biggest emitter, and complaining that quotas should also be imposed on such poor but fast-growing nations as China and India.

The Times Of India, 15 Oct 2007

India: be the party pooper

President George Bush played host to a party of the top polluters of the world called to discuss climate change. The Bush meeting was strategic: first, it was an attempt (and a successful one) to club the rich countries, who have been old and big polluters, with the emerging countries-China and India. The meeting was to remove the difference between the two categories-those who need to make deep cuts in their emissions and those who need the space to grow.

The Indian government have agreed tacitly to join the membership of the polluters-only club. In this way we have blurred (if not altogether removed) the distinction-followed in all global agreements-between countries which need to take action first and those who need the ecological space to grow.

But we are hypocrites. We laid the foundation stone for this Bush conclave when we agreed to join the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, which was launched by the US administration just under two years ago. This partnership had just one aim: to break the multilateral processes built around legally binding commitments by proving that voluntary action agreed by the major polluting nations would be effective. Many meetings down the line, the partnership has led to nothing concrete on the ground. But then who cares?

We need to explain to the rich world why it needs to act decisively and cut its emissions and how it needs to change its lifestyle. We need to show how we can participate meaningfully in a strategy to avoid future emissions. We also need to say how this can be done through providing emission rights for all; effective technology transfer and hard funds to pay for transition into low-carbon growth options.

Sunita Narain, Down To Earth, 31 Oct 2007

POLITICAL ECONOMY ON CLIMATE CHANGE

The heat is on

Climate is a classic public good non-excludable and non-rival; in other words, those who don't pay for it cannot be excluded from enjoying its benefits, and one person's enjoyment of the climate does not diminish the capacity of others to enjoy it too. Conversely, if one person damages (or improves) it, he does it for everyone (including future generations) and himself; in addition, the full cost is never borne by the individual responsible for the damage and so there is no economic incentive to preserve the atmosphere.

Urjit R Patel, The Business Standard, 16 Oct 2007

The invisible THREAT

Climate change has been affecting the state from the last couple of years. In Orissa, rainfall has become more erratic and less compatible to crop schedules. According to reports only seven of the last 25 years have normal or more than normal rainfall.

In thirteen years, more than seven percent of the total geographical area has turned barren.

The Water Initiatives Orissa (WIO) aided by Manav Adhikar Seva Samiti (MASS), an Orissa-based NGO, has launched a massive campaign to generate public awareness on climate change and also involving people in finding ways to fight this crisis.

The WIO has also come out with an analysis on how production of all major crops, including paddy, pulses, oilseeds and vegetables are gradually falling in spite of high external inputs like chemi-cals, fertilizers and use of machineries. With all these worrying indicators, the WIO has already cautioned that if things deteriorate at the present rate then in another 150 years Orissa will be a desert.

A postcard campaign to 5000 people asks them to write down their experience, perception and suggestion on how to fight climate change. People are also asked to write about effects that they are feeling due to climate change that include changing behavior of animals, birds, plants etc.

The basic idea is to learn from people's own knowledge, disseminate their own information and involve them in the process of combating climate changes by integrating their knowledge and experiences with academic researches.

Hemant Kumar Rout, Sahara Time, 23 Sep 2007,

Eco-friendly vehicles vehicles crushed under wheels

Unless public policy allows cycle rickshaws to negotiate their position, an opportunity to impact change in the city environment in light of ensuing climate change will be missed.

When improved cycle rickshaws, with speed gears and ergonomic design, were launched in Agra in 1997, the future of the poor man's public transport had started looking up. Ten years later, the status of rickshaw is that of abject ridicule as many cities have banned the movement of this environment-friendly pedal-powered convenience from municipal limits.

By contrast, rickshaws are seen as symbols of the future in developed nations - an environment friendly means of transport. On New York's fifth avenue people could be seen looking around for cycle rickshaws in the evenings. Elsewhere in North America and Europe, cycle rickshaws are finding favour with commuters. The India Cycle Rickshaw Improvement Project, undertaken by the New York-based Institute for Transport and Development Policy (ITDP), was born out of the realisation that improving the design efficiency of human-powered public transport could be a win-win situation. From improving city environ-ment to providing gainful employment, rickshaws could be a cheaper mode of public transport.

Against the powerful automobile industry, the unorganised human powered vehicle industry stands little chance to impact change. It is however another matter that the annual turnover by cycle rickshaws is worth Rs 1500 crore.

Sudhirendar Sharma, The Deccan Herald, 25 Oct 2007

Global warning

western scientists are busy complaining about the pollution caused by the billions of cooking stoves in India and China. While the US and Australia emit around five tonnes a year per citizen, Europe averages under three tonnes, China is below one tonne and India below even half a tonne.

When the story of the Arctic ice melting broke recently,the western world spoke in terms of opening sea lanes and increased tourist traffic. No wonder, "oil and mineral companies and shipping magnates long for the day when they prospect at will, build new cities, navigate their vessels at all seasons from Baffin Island to Svelbard and from Greenland to Siberia.."

And now turn to the local scenario. Worli seashore residents are disturbed at the beach wall caving in and are trying to erect a massive protective wall; while those even better endowed in Marine Drive are busy beautifying the Queen's Neck-lace unperturbed by a greater damage to be caused by the free-way from Bandra to Nariman Point. Down south, the sea is being dredged unmindful of the devastation that may be caused to the southern coastline. Those ill our generation who witnessed Danushkodi being devoured by giant tidal waves 43 years back are bent on bringing a greater Armageddon to the Tamil Nadu coast, having forgotten the long-lost Kumarikandam. And before we lay an accusing finger at China for diverting the Himalayan rivers to the north or for the environmental folly of the Three Gorges, we should ponder at our equally monstrous white elephant of bringing the Ganga and Brahmaputra waters to the south, a political rhetoric employed by southern politicians.

The danger thus is not the cooking fires of the Asian people, but the greed and ambitions of politicians and civil servants turning a blind eye to the unhindered environmental devastation.

S Subramanyan, The Business Standard, 26 Oct 2007

High cement demand pushes up pollution in developing countries

Some 80% of cement is made in and used by emerging economies; China alone makes and uses 45% of global output.

But making cement creates pollution, in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and the greenest of technologies can reduce that by only 20%. Cement plants already account for 5% of global emissions of CO2, the main cause of global warming. Worse yet, green incentives may be allowing the industry to pollute even more. The European Union subsidizes Western companies that buy outmoded cement plants in poor countries and refit them with green technology.

The emissions per ton of cement produced do go down. But the amount of cement produced often goes way up, as does the pollution generated.

"Total emissions are growing because the demand is growing so fast and continues to grow and you can't cap that," Luneau said. "Our core business is cement, so there is a limit to what we can change."

And cement, which used to be produced and used locally, is increasingly shipped long distances.

Elisabeth Rosenthal, MINT, 23 Oct 2007

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